Learn · Everyday traders
What is the AAII Sentiment Survey?
The AAII Sentiment Survey is a weekly poll that asks individual investors one question: where do you think the stock market is headed over the next six months? It has run every week since 1987, which makes it one of the longest-running reads on how everyday investors feel.
How the survey works
The American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) asks its members to pick one of three answers about the direction of the stock market over the next six months:
- Bullish: stocks will be higher
- Neutral: stocks will be about the same
- Bearish: stocks will be lower
Voting runs from Thursday through the following Wednesday. AAII tallies the answers and publishes the results early every Thursday morning, as three percentages that add up to 100.
The numbers to watch
The bull-bear spread. Subtract the bearish share from the bullish share. A reading of 36.9% bullish and 45.8% bearish gives a spread of −8.9 points: more members expect a decline than a rally. Some traders use the bull-bear ratio instead, bullish divided by bearish: 36.9 ÷ 45.8 = 0.81, where anything under 1 means bears outnumber bulls.
The historical averages. AAII publishes long-run averages with every release. As of October 2026 it lists them as 37.5% bullish, 31.0% neutral and 31.5% bearish. A week is notable when a reading sits far from its average, and even more so when it stays there for weeks in a row.
Streaks. AAII also reports how many consecutive weeks a reading has been above or below its average. A long run of above-average pessimism tells you the mood isn't a one-week blip.
Why traders read it as a contrarian signal
When most individual investors are already bearish, many of them have usually sold or hedged. That can leave fewer sellers if the news turns out better than feared. The reverse applies when optimism runs hot. That's why extreme readings get attention, and why traders compare them with history rather than taking them at face value.
It isn't a timing tool on its own. Pessimism can stay elevated for months while markets keep falling, and the survey covers AAII members, not every investor.
How Tickerhollow uses it
We don't read the survey alone. Each week we rank the bull-bear spread against its last 52 readings to get an AAII mood score from −100 to +100, then average it with CFTC small-trader positioning to get the everyday traders side of the Hollow Gap. The other side is big money: hedge funds and asset managers in S&P 500 futures (see how to read the COT report).
The gap between the two sides is the useful part. When everyday investors are nervous but big money is leaning in, or the other way round, the two groups are positioned for different outcomes. See a full year of readings.
FAQ
When is the AAII Sentiment Survey released?
Early every Thursday morning, covering votes cast from the previous Thursday through Wednesday.
What is the AAII bull-bear spread?
The bullish percentage minus the bearish percentage. Negative means more members expect stocks to fall over the next six months than expect them to rise.
Is the AAII survey a contrarian indicator?
Many traders read it that way: heavy pessimism has often come near lows and heavy optimism near highs. It works best alongside other data, such as positioning, rather than on its own.
A gauge, not a forecast. Nothing here is financial advice. Source: AAII Investor Sentiment Survey.